Alaska Progress Report

Alaska's April 2012 unemployment rate was 6.9 percent

From the Alaska Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April was 6.9 percent, essentially unchanged from 7.0 percent in March. The comparable national rate was 8.1 percent, down one-tenth of a percentage point. The U.S. and Alaska rates have both declined gradually but consistently in recent months, although unlike Alaska’s rate, the U.S. rate remains signifi cantly higher than pre-recession levels.

"Job numbers show the same pattern. U.S. employment is still about five million below its January 2008 peak, while Alaska quickly recovered after the mild job losses of 2009. Preliminary estimates for 2012 show a continuing trend of modest job growth in Alaska. Unemployment rates around the state, which are not seasonally adjusted, fell in all but one region in April as the labor market geared up for summer. Juneau’s rate of 4.8 percent was the state’s lowest, and the Wade Hampton Census Area’s was highest at 21.4 percent. Rates tend to decline over the spring and summer as many Alaskans take seasonal jobs in fi shing, seafood processing, construction and tourism."

December unemployment at 7.3 percent

From the Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged in December, at 7.3 percent. The comparable national jobless rate for December was 8.5 percent, down from 8.7 percent in November. Both rates were lower than a year ago, when the national unemployment rate was 9.4 percent and Alaska’s was 7.9 percent.

"Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased in all six of the state’s regions, as they typically do in December. Rates were lower than December 2010 in four regions, about the same in the Northern Region, and noticeably higher in the Southwest Region. The largest increases in Southwest were in the Aleutians East Borough and in the Aleutians West and Wade Hampton census areas.

"Nineteen of 30 areas in the state had unemployment rates in the double digits, and fi ve of those exceeded 20 percent — not unusual for Alaska in the winter. Rates were highest in Skagway and the Aleutians East Borough, whose economies are tied to fi shing and tourism and/or suffer from a lack of year-round employment opportunities. The areas with the lowest rates tend to be the state’s larger communities, where seasonal employment is less pronounced.

"Wage and salary employment continued its typical seasonal decline in December, with job counts falling the most in construction and manufacturing, which is mostly seafood processing. Job numbers were below December 2010 levels, but the preliminary estimates are subject to potentially large revisions."

Alaska unemployment flat, below national rate for third year

From the October 2011 Department of Labor press release: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October was essentially unchanged, declining one-tenth of a percentage point to 7.4 percent. September’s rate was revised down slightly, to 7.5 percent.

"The comparable national rate for October was 9.0 percent, also showing little change from September. The U.S. and Alaska rates have both fallen moderately in the last year. The national rate is seven-tenths of a percentage point lower than in October 2010, and Alaska’s rate is down half a percentage point.

"Alaska’s rate has been below the nation’s for exactly three years now, an unusual relationship after decades of the state’s rate being one to two percentage points higher than the nation’s. Not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased in all but one of the state’s regions in October. This is typical as the job market continues its annual transition from summer to winter... Employment in construction and leisure and hospitality took a sharp seasonal downturn in October. Construction employment fell by more than 1,000, and leisure and hospitality lost more than 6,000 jobs. Over the year, total payroll employment was up by an estimated 2,300, with the largest share of new jobs coming from health care."

Alaska unemployment unchanged in August at 7.7 percent

From the Alaska Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August was 7.7 percent, unchanged from July’s revised rate. The national rate was 9.1 percent, also unchanged from the prior month. These jobless rates have also remained relatively static throughout 2011. In January, the nation’s rate was 9.0 percent, and the state’s rate was 7.8 percent.

"It’s not unusual for the state’s jobless rate to follow the national trend. Because Alaska’s employment picture remains brighter than in most of the nation, fewer Alaskan job seekers are leaving the state and more people are heading north looking for work, putting upward pressure on the state’s unemployment rate. This is evidenced by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s recently released intercensal data, which show the decade’s largest population gains were in 2009 and 2010. These trends are highly likely to continue throughout 2011.

"Even though unemployment hasn’t dropped in 2011, Alaska remains in an enviable place among most states with a July rate that was 17th lowest in the nation. This is a historically unusual place for Alaska, whose unemployment ranked second-highest in the nation as recently as August 2007.

"In August, Alaska’s nonseasonally adjusted regional unemployment rates fell slightly in five of six regions. Southeast’s rates were lowest in August as fishing and tourism remained at or near peak levels. Although Southwest was home to the areas with both the highest and lowest unemployment rates, that region had the highest overall unemployment and the only rate that increased in August."

May unemployment flat at 7.4 percent

From the Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May was 7.4 percent, up slightly from April’s unchanged rate of 7.3 percent. The comparable national rate in May was 9.1 percent, up from the revised rate of 9.0 percent in April.

"The unemployment rates for Alaska and the U.S both remain below year-ago levels. During the past two months, the national jobless rate raised concern as it trended slightly upward. However, 39 states reported rate decreases in April, the latest data available for individual states. Alaska’s jobless numbers remain better than average compared to the U.S. and to many other states. In April, 34 states had higher unemployment rates than Alaska, 13 had lower rates, and two were identical. Nevada’s rate was highest at 12.5 percent, and 3.3 percent in North Dakota was the lowest. Alaska’s relatively healthy job market likely means more new job seekers, which puts some pressure on the state’s jobless rate.

"The not seasonally adjusted jobless rates were mixed around Alaska. In four of the six regions, unemployment fell as employment and economic activity followed their usual seasonal upswing. In the Denali Borough, home to Denali Park, preparation for summer visitors dropped the jobless rate from 16.2 percent in April, one of the highest in the state, to 6.2 percent in May, one of the lowest. In Bristol Bay, the rate fell from 9.2 percent in April to 2.9 percent in May — the lowest in the state — as workers prepared to harvest and process fi sh for one of the world’s largest salmon fisheries.The highest jobless rate was 21 percent in the Aleutians East Borough, where some groundfish seasons ended."

Alaska unemployment down slightly in March to 7.4 percent

From the Department of Labor: "Alaska's seasonably adjusted unemployment rate for March was 7.4 percent, down from February’s revised rate of 7.6 percent. The comparable national rate in March was 8.8 percent, a slight decrease from the revised rate of 8.9 percent in February. The Alaska and U.S. rates for March both came in below year-ago levels, and both have trended downward for many months.

"The peak jobless rate for the nation was 10.1 percent in October of 2009, and Alaska’s unemployment hit 8.2 percent during the last three months of 2009 and the fi rst three months of 2010. As of March, Alaska’s jobless rate has been lower than the nation’s for 28 months in a row. However, the difference between the two has narrowed in recent months. Both rates are still above average, but show an improving labor market for job seekers.

"The not-seasonally adjusted jobless rates around the state either did not change or fell slightly in March, which is typical of this time of year. While rates declined slightly in four Alaska regions and held steady in the remaining three in March, all regional rates are below year-ago levels. By April or May, unemployment rates will probably begin to fall as the busy summer season begins."

January 2011 unemployment down slightly to 7.7 percent

From the Alaska Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January fell to 7.7 percent, down from December’s rate of 7.9 percent. December’s rate was revised from 8.1 percent. The comparable national jobless rate for January was 9.0 percent, down from 9.4 percent in December. Exactly a year ago, the national unemployment rate was 9.7 percent, compared to 8.2 percent for Alaska.

"Unemployment rates in Alaska and the nation are apparently improving in concert, and three months of strong recovery in the U.S. rate should bode well for Alaska’s job seekers. As the employment picture improves in the Lower 48, fewer job seekers will venture to Alaska to look for work. More opportunities in the Lower 48 might also attract more Alaskan job seekers south. The year 2009 was the fi rst in Alaska’s history that the annual unemployment rate was lower than the nation’s. This trend continued in 2010, and it appears strong in 2011. However, if the nation’s jobless rate continues to recover and approaches normal levels, the differences between Alaska and the rest of the U.S. will likely narrow, and could eventually reverse.

"Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates normally climb at least through February in most areas, and this year is following that pattern. January’s rates increased in a majority of the state, but there were a number of exceptions. Unemployment fell in Kodiak, the Aleutians East Borough, and the Aleutians West census area as they entered the groundfi sh and opilio crab seasons. In January, the North Slope Borough and Juneau had the lowest unemployment rates, and the Hoonah- Angoon census area and Skagway had the highest."

Alaska unemployment fell to 7.7 percent in January

January 2011 employment figures are in at the Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January fell to 7.7 percent, down from December’s rate of 7.9 percent. December’s rate was revised from 8.1 percent. The comparable national jobless rate for January was 9.0 percent, down from 9.4 percent in December. Exactly a year ago, the national unemployment rate was 9.7 percent, compared to 8.2 percent for Alaska. Unemployment rates in Alaska and the nation are apparently improving in concert, and three months of strong recovery in the U.S. rate should bode well for Alaska’s job seekers. As the employment picture improves in the Lower 48, fewer job seekers will venture to Alaska to look for work. More opportunities in the Lower 48 might also attract more Alaskan job seekers south.

"The year 2009 was the fi rst in Alaska’s history that the annual unemployment rate was lower than the nation’s. This trend continued in 2010, and it appears strong in 2011. However, if the nation’s jobless rate continues to recover and approaches normal levels, the differences between Alaska and the rest of the U.S. will likely narrow, and could eventually reverse.

"Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates normally climb at least through February in most areas, and this year is following that pattern. January’s rates increased in a majority of the state, but there were a number of exceptions. Unemployment fell in Kodiak, the Aleutians East Borough, and the Aleutians West census area as they entered the groundfi sh and opilio crab seasons. In January, the North Slope Borough and Juneau had the lowest unemployment rates, and the Hoonah- Angoon census area and Skagway had the highest."

March unemployment rate stays flat at 8.6%

From the Alaska Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March was 8.6 percent. February’s revised rate was 8.5 percent, the same as its preliminary rate. The comparable national rate for March was 9.7 percent. The jobless rates for both Alaska and the U.S remain higher than they were in March 2009, but Alaska’s picture is still better than the nation’s – and its rate is still below the nation’s.

"The number of Alaska’s unemployed in March was 4,400 higher than it was in March 2009. There is, however, some potentially good news with unemployment claimants. The total number of un-employment weeks claimed through all programs fell between February and March to below year-ago levels for the first time since the national recession began in December 2007. More months of data will be necessary to see if that’s a permanent trend or monthly aberration.

"The lowest rate (not seasonally adjusted) was in the Aleutians West Census Area, which is anchored by the communities of Sand Point and King Cove, where the groundfish season is in full swing. The Aleutians East and Kodiak Island boroughs are also benefitting from groundfish activity. Most of the other areas with relatively low unemployment rates were in the urban communities of Anchorage, Juneau, Fairbanks and Sitka.

"The two areas with the highest jobless rates were the Denali Borough and the Skagway Municipality, possibly two of the state’s most visitor-dependent places. There’s little doubt those rates will come down as the year progresses and the visitor season kicks into high gear. With this year’s prospect of fewer cruise ship passengers, those areas, along with others that depend on cruise ship passengers, will likely have higher jobless rates than in past years."

Alaska's employment picture mixed in November

From the Alaska Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 8.7 percent in November. October’s preliminary rate of 8.9 percent was revised down two-tenths of a percentage point to 8.7 percent. Alaska’s rate remains well below the national rate, which fell two-tenths of a percentage point in November to 10.0 percent. Alaska’s rate has been up and down for much of 2009, due more likely to statistical variability than real economic swings. November’s rate is only slightly higher than March’s 8.4 percent, and October’s large increase of six-tenths of a percentage point was moderated by the subsequent downward revision.

"The bottom line, in terms of what the unemployment rate is saying about the state’s labor market, is that things don’t appear to be getting significantly worse or better. As is often the case, the job numbers reveal a clearer picture of what’s happening with the state’s economy. Total payroll jobs in November were down by about 3,300 compared to November 2008, a decline of 1.1 percent. Nationally, the over-the-year job losses in November remained noticeably higher at 3.4 percent.

"Alaska’s numbers showed that nearly every sector lost jobs with the exceptions of health care, which was up by an estimated 1,700 jobs over the year, and government, which was up 700. Shifting to the over-the-month changes, the job numbers showed a large decline from October to November driven mostly by normal seasonal drops in construction and seafood processing. Jobs in accommodations, and food services and drinking places also fell signifi  cantly in November, as they typically do."