Alaska Progress Report

Alaska's highly migratory population

From the April Alaska Economic Trends: "Alaska has one of the highest rates of population turnover in the nation — there are always large numbers of people moving in and out, regardless of whether the overall population is growing or shrinking.

"Depending on the year and data source, between 5 and 7 percent of Alaska’s population enters or leaves the state each year. These large flows in and out, or “gross migration,” tend to be fairly stable and predictable. While gross migration flows explain how the makeup of the population changes, “net migration” measures the effect on the total population count — just one effect of moves.

"Net migration — the number who move in minus those who move out — is much more volatile, and it’s important to remember it’s just at the surface of the much larger and more consistent in-and-out migration flows. Even during the years that Alaska has a net migration loss, more than 30,000 people still arrive here each year."

Alaska has fastest growing senior population

The always-fascinating United States Census delivers some interesting data on senior citizens at the state level. Turns out that in the decade 2000 to 2010 Alaska's 65+ population grew at the fastest rate in the nation.

The total population grew 13.3 percent in Alaska versus 9.7 percent nationwide. That's nothing: the 65+ population in Alaska grew 53.9 percent versus 15.1 percent (the next highest: Nevada at 48.2 percent), and the 85+ population grew 78.9 percent versus 29.6 percent (next highest: Nevada again at 77.7 percent).

Alaska is still the youngest state out there, but the increased availability of services, especially health care, is allowing many older Alaskans to age in place and, not inconsequentially, contribute $1.5 billion a year to the economy.

State data on long-term services and supports

We're not even going to try to summarize this new report: On the Verge: The Transformation of Long-Term Services and Supports from the AARP Public Policy Institute. Here's what they say: "Many states are undergoing or are about to undergo a dizzying array of long-term services and supports (LTSS) transformations. The lagging economy and increased demand for publicly funded LTSS are placing pressure on state policymakers to find solutions.

"As a result, many states either have or plan to implement Medicaid Managed LTSS, with 12 states having existing programs and another 11 with plans for implementation. At least 28 states are focusing on improved integration of care for people who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. Many states used the economic downturn as an opportunity to balance services from institutional to noninstitutional settings, with 27 states reporting that home and community-based services census increased from fiscal year (FY) 2010 to FY 2011 and 31 states reporting expected increases from FY 2011 to FY 2012."

There is a ton of data on the states, so go crazy.

Alaska's population increased 1.7 percent in 2011

From the Department of Labor: "Alaska’s statewide population increased by 1.7 percent – or 11,959 people – from April 2010 to July 2011, based on population estimates released today by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Alaska’s growth outpaced the United States as a whole, which grew 0.9 percent over the same period.

"Of Alaska’s 29 boroughs and census areas, 24 grew between the 2010 Census and the 2011 estimate. The largest population increases were in the Municipality of Anchorage (4,371), Matanuska-Susitna Borough (2,702), City and Borough of Juneau (1,015), Kenai Peninsula Borough (969) and Bethel Census Area (535).

"Among the state’s six economic regions, Anchorage/Mat-Su gained the most over the period (7,073) followed by Southeast (1,862), Gulf Coast (1,394), Southwest (964), Northern (520) and Interior (146).
A mix of natural increase – births minus deaths – and migration led to the population gains in Anchorage/Mat-Su, Interior, Gulf Coast and Southeast. Natural increase accounted for most of the growth in the Northern and Southwest regions."

Alaska is third fastest growing state population

From the Census Bureau, news that "the nation's overall growth rate is now at its lowest point since before the baby  boom." Good or bad? Hey, we just report, you decide...

"Among states and equivalents, the District of Columbia experienced the fastest growth between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011, as its population climbed 2.7 percent. This marks the first time it led states and equivalents in growth since the early 1940s. D.C. ranked 35th in percent growth between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.

"Following D.C. in terms of percent increase between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011, were Texas (2.1 percent), Utah (1.9 percent), Alaska (1.8 percent), Colorado (1.7 percent) and North Dakota (1.7 percent). North Dakota was 37th in percent growth between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.

"The only three states to lose population between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011, were Rhode Island (1,300 or -0.12 percent), Michigan (7,400 or -0.08 percent) and Maine (200 or -0.01 percent)."

2011 Juneau & Southeast Alaska Economic Indicators

Things are looking up in Juneau and Southeast Alaska. From a September 2011 report by the Juneau Economic Development Council: "Alaska has weathered the recent national recession fairly well, including our region. While cruise visitors are down from their peak in 2008, they are expected to head back up in 2012. Prices for seafood are rising and mining jobs have increased significantly in Juneau with the Kensington Mine in full swing. Government jobs, a significant part of Juneau's economy and the Southeast region remained solid, and job gains in the health care industry continue. The population in Juneau increased slightly and the steady decline in population for the rest of the region experienced over the last decade appears to be leveling off."

Alaska has large percentage of new residents

The Census Bureau released new data on migration, and it seems across the nation people are staying put: "The percentage of people who changed residences between 2010 and 2011 ─ 11.6 percent ─ was the lowest recorded rate since the Current Population Survey began collecting statistics on the movement of people in the United States in 1948, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. The rate, which was 20.2 percent in 1985, declined to a then-record low of 11.9 percent in 2008 before rising to 12.5 percent in 2009. The 2010 rate was not statistically different than the 2009 rate."

Yet, as usual, Alaska bucks the trend to some degree: "As of 2010, the majority of Americans (59 percent) lived in the state in which they were born, so says Lifetime Mobility in the United States: 2010. The state with the highest such percentage was Louisiana (78.8 percent), followed by Michigan (76.6 percent), Ohio (75.1 percent) and Pennsylvania (74.0 percent). Conversely, in four states ─ Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Nevada ─ and in the District of Columbia, fewer than 40 percent of residents were born in that state or state-equivalent. Nevada, with less than a quarter, had the lowest percentage in the nation."

Migrants to Alaska come from many different places. Where in some states it's possible to identify large inflows and outflows of people to and from specific states, in Alaska it's literally all over the place, with no other state being a significantly higher origin or destination.

Anchorage ranked #2 for military retirees second careers

The United States Army Association and Military.com commissioned Sperling's BestPlaces to look at 379 major U.S. metropolitan areas to determine the best places for military retirees to launch second careers. Anchorage was chosen as the second-best medium-sized metropolitan area, based on the price of housing, unemployment rate, taxes and opportunities for work related to skills relevant to the military.

Alaska's senior population increases fastest 2000-2010

For the decade ending 2010, Alaska's population age 65 and over increased by 53.9 percent. This was the largest increase of any state during that period. The National Journal has an article that explores the political ramifications of this trend for the 2012 elections:

"Of the 20 states that have seen the highest growth in their senior populations, eight are or could be battlegrounds, including Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. That doesn’t include key House districts in states like Florida and Michigan, where senior voters dominate. Democrats believe they have the upper hand given Ryan’s budget and the Ponzi-scheme comparison. Republicans point to this year’s victory in a special election in northern Nevada."

Given recent Pew research that shows the "Silent Generation" leading everyone else in distrust of government, this could spell trouble.

Alaska population the youngest in the nation

The Census Bureau has released 2010 demographic profiles for thirteen states including Alaska. The Anchorage Daily News has a nice summary. Fast facts:

• The median age was 33.8, exactly three years younger than the national average of 36.8.
• The average household size was 2.65 people per household.
• Among the state's occupied housing units, 63.1 percent were owned, compared with 36.9 percent that were rented.

Click on the link above, click Alaska on the map and click "full screen" in the upper right to get a very cool interactive map of demographic data.