Alaska Progress Report

2011 Juneau & Southeast Alaska Economic Indicators

Things are looking up in Juneau and Southeast Alaska. From a September 2011 report by the Juneau Economic Development Council: "Alaska has weathered the recent national recession fairly well, including our region. While cruise visitors are down from their peak in 2008, they are expected to head back up in 2012. Prices for seafood are rising and mining jobs have increased significantly in Juneau with the Kensington Mine in full swing. Government jobs, a significant part of Juneau's economy and the Southeast region remained solid, and job gains in the health care industry continue. The population in Juneau increased slightly and the steady decline in population for the rest of the region experienced over the last decade appears to be leveling off."

Alaska economy from 2000-2010 slow but smooth

From the September 2011 Alaska Economic Trends: "Alaska’s economy of the past decade was without large booms, busts, or any defining economic event — yet it was still unique. The 2000–2010 decade was the slowest period of employment growth since statehood, and probably the least dramatic. Some referred to it as the 'one percent economy' because that’s about as much as it grew each year. Despite the lackluster economic performance, it might have been one of the more balanced decades, as nearly every industry contributed to the expansion. For example:

• The fishing industry began to recover from the lows of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
• Employment in the oil industry grew significantly.
• Oil revenues and federal expenditures both more than doubled.
• A third of the state’s currently operating large mines opened, along with other major mineral exploration and development.
• The number of summer visitors climbed from 1.2 million in 2001 to 1.5 million in 2010.
• International air cargo volume increased by a third.

"One exception to the growth trend was the timber industry, which continued to shrink during most of the past decade. High, unprecedented prices for commodities such as oil, minerals, and fish spurred production for many of the above industries."

Alaska unemployment flat, below national rate for third year

From the October 2011 Department of Labor press release: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October was essentially unchanged, declining one-tenth of a percentage point to 7.4 percent. September’s rate was revised down slightly, to 7.5 percent.

"The comparable national rate for October was 9.0 percent, also showing little change from September. The U.S. and Alaska rates have both fallen moderately in the last year. The national rate is seven-tenths of a percentage point lower than in October 2010, and Alaska’s rate is down half a percentage point.

"Alaska’s rate has been below the nation’s for exactly three years now, an unusual relationship after decades of the state’s rate being one to two percentage points higher than the nation’s. Not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased in all but one of the state’s regions in October. This is typical as the job market continues its annual transition from summer to winter... Employment in construction and leisure and hospitality took a sharp seasonal downturn in October. Construction employment fell by more than 1,000, and leisure and hospitality lost more than 6,000 jobs. Over the year, total payroll employment was up by an estimated 2,300, with the largest share of new jobs coming from health care."

Alaska has large percentage of new residents

The Census Bureau released new data on migration, and it seems across the nation people are staying put: "The percentage of people who changed residences between 2010 and 2011 ─ 11.6 percent ─ was the lowest recorded rate since the Current Population Survey began collecting statistics on the movement of people in the United States in 1948, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. The rate, which was 20.2 percent in 1985, declined to a then-record low of 11.9 percent in 2008 before rising to 12.5 percent in 2009. The 2010 rate was not statistically different than the 2009 rate."

Yet, as usual, Alaska bucks the trend to some degree: "As of 2010, the majority of Americans (59 percent) lived in the state in which they were born, so says Lifetime Mobility in the United States: 2010. The state with the highest such percentage was Louisiana (78.8 percent), followed by Michigan (76.6 percent), Ohio (75.1 percent) and Pennsylvania (74.0 percent). Conversely, in four states ─ Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Nevada ─ and in the District of Columbia, fewer than 40 percent of residents were born in that state or state-equivalent. Nevada, with less than a quarter, had the lowest percentage in the nation."

Migrants to Alaska come from many different places. Where in some states it's possible to identify large inflows and outflows of people to and from specific states, in Alaska it's literally all over the place, with no other state being a significantly higher origin or destination.

Health care costs higher in Alaska

The Commonwealth Fund has more data on the obvious: health care costs more in Alaska. People in the industry will tell you that health care in Alaska costs are more than half again what it costs in the Lower 48. The Fund's latest report shows that Alaska is above average both for premiums for families and deductibles for single people.

Alaska scores at the bottom on way too many indicators of health, yet we were the only state not to take advantage of Federal money to study health exchanges for extending health insurance to all Alaskans. The Alaska Health Care Commission recently completed its draft recommendations and findings, and they are available for public comment until December 2.

Anchorage ranked #2 for military retirees second careers

The United States Army Association and Military.com commissioned Sperling's BestPlaces to look at 379 major U.S. metropolitan areas to determine the best places for military retirees to launch second careers. Anchorage was chosen as the second-best medium-sized metropolitan area, based on the price of housing, unemployment rate, taxes and opportunities for work related to skills relevant to the military.

Alaska's senior population increases fastest 2000-2010

For the decade ending 2010, Alaska's population age 65 and over increased by 53.9 percent. This was the largest increase of any state during that period. The National Journal has an article that explores the political ramifications of this trend for the 2012 elections:

"Of the 20 states that have seen the highest growth in their senior populations, eight are or could be battlegrounds, including Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. That doesn’t include key House districts in states like Florida and Michigan, where senior voters dominate. Democrats believe they have the upper hand given Ryan’s budget and the Ponzi-scheme comparison. Republicans point to this year’s victory in a special election in northern Nevada."

Given recent Pew research that shows the "Silent Generation" leading everyone else in distrust of government, this could spell trouble.