Alaska Progress Report

Older Alaskans have lowest rates of critical screenings, immunizations

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, the saying goes. Alaskans, apparently, prefer to pay by the pound. A new CDC report on the use of preventive services by Americans age 65 plus shows that Alaskans have the lowest rates of two of four recommended screenings, and the lowest rate of one of two recommended immunizations.

The exact data is in appendix B of the report. Alaskans age 65 plus have the worst rates of any state for immunizations for influenza (37.9% not receiving), and for screenings for breast cancer (27.5% not receiving) and cholesterol (10% not receiving). Alaska has the 9th worst rate of screenings for colorectal cancer (40.8% not receiving), the 12th worst rate of vaccinations for pneumococcal 33.7% not receiving), and - the only "bright" spot - the 20th worst rate for diabetes screenings (30.8% not receiving).

Annual economic forecast predicts 2011 a lot like 2010

The two-armed economists at Northern Economics prepared the 2011 annual economic forecast for the World Trade Center Alaska. The summary from their March 2011 newsletter: "We expect that 2011 may be very much like 2010. In general, we see Alaska entering an era of slower growth with significant question marks about the state’s ability to generate significant long-term growth without a gas pipeline or changes in the investment atmosphere. For 2011, we think that Healthcare and Private Education will continue to lead the way as measured by job growth. Investment in the oil patch is likely to remain flat. However, investment in mineral exploration and mine development will continue to be strong. Construction is likely to be driven by public funds as private funding takes a breather. In general, the short-term outlook is stable as long as high oil prices continue to mask the state’s declining oil production. The longer term is considerably more difficult to forecast.

"In terms of GSP, officially we predict the measure to be essentially flat overall, but we think there is the strong chance for GSP growth to outrace our official predictions. We use the State of Alaska Department of Revenue’s official predictions for average oil prices in our analysis. However, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) is predicting average oil prices that are nearly $10 per barrel higher than the State of Alaska’s more conservative estimate. If oil prices are closer to the official State of Alaska estimate, then we will see a four percent decline in GSP from the Natural Resources supersector, and our prediction calls for largely offsetting gains in other sectors for a total prediction of a 0.4 percent decline in GSP. On the other hand (we’re economists; there is always another hand), if oil prices are closer to the EIA’s prediction for 2011, averaging in the low $90s per barrel range, then GSP will likely increase by four to six percent overall this year. If this second case occurs, then Alaska will set a record for highest GSP ever. Apart from the Natural Resources supersector, we anticipate slight upticks in GSP attributable to Trade (two percent gain), Hospitality and Leisure (one percent gain), and Health and Education (four percent gain). We expect Transportation and Utilities, Construction and Manufacturing, Government, and Finance and Other Services to remain flat.

"As noted in our introduction, we are predicting a one percent gain in jobs this year. We expect Healthcare and Private Education employment to be up more than five percent this year, the largest gain expected for any supersector. We think that the Natural Resources supersector, led primarily by mining and fisheries, will be up roughly 1.7 percent. We predict Wholesale and Retail Trade employment to increase 1.5 percent. We predict the remaining sectors will experience less than one percent growth and we think there’s a possibility that overall Government employment could fall very slightly this year."

Animal rabies in Alaska, 1999 to 2011

Desperate for data, today we bring you... wait for it... animal rabies in Alaska, courtesy of the current State of Alaska Epidemiology Bulletin! Not to disparage the good work of the science-y types, we'll keep it mercifully brief.

Rabies lives mostly in fox populations in northern and western Alaska. Observed cases follow a 3 to 5 year cycle, ranging from roughly 10 to 50 cases a year. In 2011 sixteen animals were tested by the State, of which nine - all foxes from northern and western boroughs - tested positive.

The most likely pathway to people is through dogs bitten by foxes, so vaccinate your animals. And remember, our best data on zombies indicates that zombie outbreaks begin with a mutation of the rabies virus. Or maybe it's a bacteria. I don't know, I slept through science class. I stayed awake for 28 Days Later though so I know what I'm talking about. The wise will stockpile shotguns and axes. Good night and good luck.

Asthma in Alaska

New data is available from the Asthma Call-back Survey, an in-depth asthma survey developed and funded by the Air Pollution and Respiratory Health Branch in the National Center for Environmental Health. It is conducted with Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey respondents who report an asthma diagnosis.

Asthma surveillance data at the state level includes adult and child asthma prevalence and in-depth state and local asthma data. A 2006 state report on Asthma in Alaska has good background reading, and the Alaska Asthma Coalition has even more information on the burden of asthma:

"More than 72,000 Alaskans report that they have suffered from asthma at some point in their lives, and more than 46,100 report a current diagnosis. Approximately 8 percent of children in Alaska have asthma. Rural Alaska Natives have some of the highest documented rates for respiratory diseases, suggesting the same may be true for asthma. Uncertainty about true asthma rates among rural Alaskans is due to a lack of consistency in the diagnosis and treatment of asthma, despite the existence of well-established national guidelines. Between July 2002 and June 2003 there were over $8.6 million spent by Medicaid for asthma in Alaska."

New report says "relax the tax" on oil

From Commonwealth North: "Commonwealth North proudly announces our newest study 'Alaska's Oil Investment Tax Structure: Establishing A Competitive Alaska.' The Board of Directors and members engaged in a seventeen week targeted study that evaluated the primary public policy concerns associated with Alaska's oil tax structure. It was determined that the current oil production tax adversely affects investment in oil production on the North Slope and progressivity should be modified. Commonwealth North is hopeful that this report will be used as a source document for anyone who wishes to understand the issues and terminology surrounding oil taxes."

There are eight findings leading to three recommendations: reduce or cap the progressivity tax, incentivize new exploration through tax credits, and revise ACES this year even if it takes a special session. For those who need a reminder, oil revenues provide 80 to 90 percent of the state budget in any given year, the pipeline is running about half full and production is declining about 6 percent a year.

Fairbanks economic clusters and performance

The Fairbanks North Star Borough released its Winter 2010 Community Research Quarterly, and the economic picture was predictably mixed. The report begins with a discussion of industry clusters that drive economic performance:

"...we have a few significant industry clusters in our economy: tourism, oil and gas, mining, and the military. We also have discovered and described many of the service and support industries that support these clusters: logistics (air, barge, and trucking), architectural/engineers, specialized machinery and facilities support. Logistics also supports our regional hub cluster, not identified in our reported employment concentration ratios. Clearly, then what we see is that the strong industries in our region have created need and opportunity for logistics, capital equipment, facilities support and architectural/engineering support and service industries.

"...A thriving cluster requires a healthy business environment, trained workforce, available capital, technology, physical infrastructure and good quality of life. While we can, and will work on developing and strengthening these clusters, we must also work to develop and strengthen our business climate. This includes ensuring availability of affordable energy, complying with our air quality mandate, and working to make the FNSB and the state a friendly business environment. These are all very big challenges, but we must address them for us to become competitive in the state, national and global market."

Social services and the private sector

The invaluable March 2011 Alaska Economic Trends is out, and it focuses on the impact of social assistance in Alaska: "Representing 3 percent of our workforce, private sector social assistance makes up a small but integral part of our economy. Additionally, a significant percentage of workers provide social assistance through the public sector.

"Social assistance, more commonly known as social services, provides a gamut of services including personal care assistance, day care for children and adults, foster care and adoption, and crisis intervention and counseling services. One major category is vocational rehabilitation, which includes job counseling and training, work experience, and on-the-job support such as coaching to help people with disabilities obtain and retain employment."

The report concludes: "The future of social assistance is uncertain. If we only consider the demographic outlook for Alaska, it appears the demand for these services could only grow. According to the department’s population projections, highlighted in the December 2010 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, Alaska’s senior population — a big consumer of these services — will be the fastest-growing age group in the state. By 2024, those age 65 and over are projected to more than double. The state’s younger population, also major recipients of social services, are also forecasted to grow faster than the overall population."

Alaska unemployment fell to 7.7 percent in January

January 2011 employment figures are in at the Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January fell to 7.7 percent, down from December’s rate of 7.9 percent. December’s rate was revised from 8.1 percent. The comparable national jobless rate for January was 9.0 percent, down from 9.4 percent in December. Exactly a year ago, the national unemployment rate was 9.7 percent, compared to 8.2 percent for Alaska. Unemployment rates in Alaska and the nation are apparently improving in concert, and three months of strong recovery in the U.S. rate should bode well for Alaska’s job seekers. As the employment picture improves in the Lower 48, fewer job seekers will venture to Alaska to look for work. More opportunities in the Lower 48 might also attract more Alaskan job seekers south.

"The year 2009 was the fi rst in Alaska’s history that the annual unemployment rate was lower than the nation’s. This trend continued in 2010, and it appears strong in 2011. However, if the nation’s jobless rate continues to recover and approaches normal levels, the differences between Alaska and the rest of the U.S. will likely narrow, and could eventually reverse.

"Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates normally climb at least through February in most areas, and this year is following that pattern. January’s rates increased in a majority of the state, but there were a number of exceptions. Unemployment fell in Kodiak, the Aleutians East Borough, and the Aleutians West census area as they entered the groundfi sh and opilio crab seasons. In January, the North Slope Borough and Juneau had the lowest unemployment rates, and the Hoonah- Angoon census area and Skagway had the highest."

HIV infection in Alaska, 1982-2010

From the State of Alaska Epidemiology Bulletin: From January 1, 1982 through December 31, 2010, 1,394 cases of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were reported to the Alaska Section of Epidemiology (SOE), 488 (35%) of which were in persons who are known to have subsequently died. During 2010, 77 cases of HIV infection were reported to SOE, two of which were in persons who are known to have died as of December 31, 2010. Of those 77 cases, 38 (49%) were initially diagnosed in 2010. An initial diagnosis of HIV might not mean that acquisition of HIV infection is recent; in fact, of the 38 persons with a new diagnosis of HIV in 2010, 14 also had a diagnosis of AIDS suggesting a more long-standing infection.

Of the 1,394 cases reported from 1982–2010,

• 1118 (80%) were male;
• 795 (57%) were White (Figure 1);
• 1,107 (79%) had their initial diagnosis in Alaska; of those, 781 (71%) were diagnosed in the Anchorage/Matanuska-Susitna area (Figure 2);
• the most common exposure category (48%) was men having sex with men (MSM; Figure 3);
• the median age was 34 years (range: <1–75 years; Figure 4);
• 955 (69%) had a diagnosis of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS).

Of the 77 cases reported in 2010,

• 61 (79%) were male;
• 34 (44%) were White, 13 (17%) were Alaska Native/American Indian, and 10 (13%) were Black;
• 45 (58%) had their initial diagnosis in Alaska; of those, 33 (73%) were diagnosed in the Anchorage/Matanuska-Susitna area;
• 47 (61%) were MSM, five of whom were MSM with a history of injection drug use (MSM/IDU);
• the median age was 34 years (range: 16–70 years);
• 34 (44%) had a diagnosis of AIDS;
• 38 were newly diagnosed; of those, 45% were White, 26% were Alaska Native/American Indian, and 63% were MSM.

Alaska 2nd in adult physical activity

A recent study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (a.k.a. the Department of Buzzkill) produced county-level data on adult physical activity and inactivity. It shows that physical inactivity is highest in the Southeast.

The Economist analyzed the data to show that physical activity is highest in cold weather states. With about 73% of adults reporting 150 minutes or more of moderate physical activity, of half that much of vigorous activity, Alaska ranks second, just behind Vermont, if our admittedly weak eyesight is reading their chart correctly. Now you know, so get off the couch.