Pat Burden from the Anchorage-based consulting firm Northern Economics recently gave a presentation titled Alaska Economic Outlook 2009. One thing you have to appreciate right off the bat is his willingness to revisit his 2008 forecast. He admits to being too low on his predictions for the price of oil, gross state product (GSP) and jobs. All understandable given the volatile oil prices we saw in 2008, from a high of $145 in mid-2008 to a low of under $30 around the end of the year.
Burden's 2009 forecast: "Alaska will join the rest of the nation in a recession in 2009; jobs will decline by about 3,400 or 0.6% of total jobs in 2008; earnings will decline by about $400 million – a decline of about 1.5%; GSP will drop $14.1 billion or 26.4%, primarily due to lower crude oil prices." The only bright spot in his forecast is a very mild increase in jobs and contribution to GSP from the government sector. Bah humbug.
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