Alaska Progress Report

Alaska's April 2012 unemployment rate was 6.9 percent

From the Alaska Department of Labor: "Alaska’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April was 6.9 percent, essentially unchanged from 7.0 percent in March. The comparable national rate was 8.1 percent, down one-tenth of a percentage point. The U.S. and Alaska rates have both declined gradually but consistently in recent months, although unlike Alaska’s rate, the U.S. rate remains signifi cantly higher than pre-recession levels.

"Job numbers show the same pattern. U.S. employment is still about five million below its January 2008 peak, while Alaska quickly recovered after the mild job losses of 2009. Preliminary estimates for 2012 show a continuing trend of modest job growth in Alaska. Unemployment rates around the state, which are not seasonally adjusted, fell in all but one region in April as the labor market geared up for summer. Juneau’s rate of 4.8 percent was the state’s lowest, and the Wade Hampton Census Area’s was highest at 21.4 percent. Rates tend to decline over the spring and summer as many Alaskans take seasonal jobs in fi shing, seafood processing, construction and tourism."

2012 Resource Extraction 10-Year Project Projection

It's a project projection, it's a project projection! From the Anchorage Economic Development Council comes the 2012 Resource Extraction 10-Year Project Projection, a review of "...over sixteen oil, gas and mining projects in the state over the next ten years and the economic impacts of these projects."

From the executive summary, compared to last year's report, "...very little has changed other than another year has gone by with only slight progress in moving the described projects forward. In effect, the opportunities and benefits those projects represent for Alaska’s economy moved another year or more away from reality... As was the case in 2011, AEDC’s perspective on the outlook for these projects is not optimistic. Alaska’s competitiveness in the global markets within which we compete, is not favorable in many ways... social compact, taxation, ermitting, litigation, commodity pricing, high costs related to project development and access to needed infrastructure have reached a point of, what is effectively, gridlock for many proposed projects. Compounding these challenges is a clear lack of agreement among Alaskans on a common vision for Alaska’s economic future."

Alaskans not agreeing on a common vision? We're shocked, shocked and appalled (we're neither).

Alaska rated highly in managing water resources

The Natural Resources Defense Council looks at efforts by states to prepare for the impact of climate change on water resources: "Alaska is among a handful of states that have developed a good plan, but recent changes have slowed progress on preparing for climate change."

In their specific analysis of Alaska: "The impacts of a warming world can already be seen across Alaska in the form of melting glaciers, earlier snowmelt, loss of sea ice, and thawing permafrost. These impacts and future changes will have wide-ranging implications for the state’s human and natural systems. Alaska has done much of the initial groundwork to develop a state climate change strategy that focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as adapting to inevitable climate change impacts, by establishing the Climate Change Sub-Cabinet. However, recent changes in the executive administration have delayed the state’s progress on the completion of a unified strategy. The Climate Change Sub-Cabinet should forge ahead and complete and implement a climate change strategy for Alaska that contains measures to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for climate impacts."

Alaska has two of top three most dangerous cities for women

Forbes takes a look at data from the FBI Uniform Crime Report and uses the rate of rape as an indicator of the most dangerous cities for women. Anchorage ranks #2 and Fairbanks #3 in the list:

"For a metro area that the FBI measures at just 38,307, an incredibly high rate of rape (more than double the national metropolitan average) lands Fairbanks among the top three most dangerous cities for women in the United States at 193 reported rapes per 100,000 residents... Meanwhile, according to a 2011 survey, more than 37% of Alaskan women report that they’ve suffered some form of sexual assault in their lives.

"And Fairbanks isn’t the only Alaskan city to top our ranking.  Anchorage suffers the highest violent crime rate in the state, (812 reported for every 100,000 residents) in addition to a staggeringly high incidence of rape. According to numbers from the FBI Uniform Crime Report, more than 85 rapes are committed annually per 100,000 citizens, which makes Anchorage No. 2 on our list."

Alaska's highly migratory population

From the April Alaska Economic Trends: "Alaska has one of the highest rates of population turnover in the nation — there are always large numbers of people moving in and out, regardless of whether the overall population is growing or shrinking.

"Depending on the year and data source, between 5 and 7 percent of Alaska’s population enters or leaves the state each year. These large flows in and out, or “gross migration,” tend to be fairly stable and predictable. While gross migration flows explain how the makeup of the population changes, “net migration” measures the effect on the total population count — just one effect of moves.

"Net migration — the number who move in minus those who move out — is much more volatile, and it’s important to remember it’s just at the surface of the much larger and more consistent in-and-out migration flows. Even during the years that Alaska has a net migration loss, more than 30,000 people still arrive here each year."

Alaska long-term care costs highest in nation

The annual cost of care report from Genworth compares long-term care costs across the nation. As usual, Alaska ranks in the top three in median annual costs across all relevant measures:

• Licensed homemaker services: #1, $55,484 versus $41,184 nationally.
• Licensed home health aide services: #3, $56,628 versus $43,472 nationally.
• Adult day care: #2, $27,040 versus $15,860 nationally.
• Assisted living, one bedroom single occupancy: #2, $66,000 versus $39,600 nationally.
• Nursing home, semi-private room: #1, $273,750 versus $73,000 nationally.
• Nursing home, private room: #1, $232,505 versus $81,030 nationally.

As care moves from home to community to facility the costs go up and the disparity between Alaska and the national average widens. A lot of that is likely due to the cost of care in rural communities, where keeping a facility open is even more expensive. One anomaly from the data above is that a private room costs less than a semi-private room in Alaska; this would make sense if the only private rooms available were in urban areas, where costs tend to be lower, while semi-private rooms are averaged across the entire state to include more expensive rural communities.

Alaska ranks 17th on long-term care for older adults

AARP, The Commonwealth Fund and The Scan Foundation issued a report: Raising Expectations: A State Scorecard on Long-Term Services and Supports for Older Adults, People with Disabilities, and Family Caregivers. Alaska was ranked 17th in the state report.

Four areas with 25 indicators total were graded, and as usual Alaska staked out the extremes:

• Affordability and access: ranked 43rd.
• Choice of setting and provider: 1st.
• Quality of life and quality of care: 1st.
• Support for family caregivers:     41st.

In general, Alaska does fairly well in that we have the lowest number of nursing home beds per capita in the nation. This is considered a good thing because it theoretically means people are getting care at home or in some other setting short of a nursing home. Where we fall short is the extreme high cost of nursing home beds, e.g. in Nome, which are some of the highest in the nation.

Alaska gets grade of D+ for corruption risk

The State Integrity Investigation, a joint project of The Center for Public Integrity, Global Integrity and Public Radio International, grades Alaska a D+ on corruption risk. That's the bad news. The good news is we're still in the middle of the pack, 27th nationwide.

There are fourteen specific areas graded. Alaska's highest grade is a C+, given in three areas: political financing, judicial accountability and internal auditing. Lowest grade is an F, given in four areas: public access to information, state pension fund management, state budget processes and redistricting.

In all fairness, no state earned an A grade. Five states got a B, nineteen got a C, 18 received a D and eight bottomed out with an F.

Summer 2011 visitor study

The Alaska Visitors Statistics Program gives a window into Alaska's vital tourism industry. The latest in these periodical studies is for summer 2011. Visitation was 1.56 million out-of-state visitors, which is an increase over summer 2010, but less than the historical peak in 2007 of 1.71 million.

Of these:

• 57% arrived by cruise ship, 39% by air, and 4% by highway/ferry.
• 77% were here for vacation.
• 66% bought a multi-day package.
• 68% visited Southeast, 56% Southcentral, 33% Interior.
• Juneau was the top destination with 61% of visitors.
• 71% of visitors were very satisfied, 27% satisfied.
• 69% shopped, 52% viewed wildlife, 49% attended cultural activities, and 39% went on sightseeing tours.
• 36% were from the Western US, 22% from the South.
• 52% were age 55 plus.
• Visitors spent an average of $941 per person per trip, excluding transportation to/from Alaska and any cruise tours.

Spending has been flat since 2006, with inflation eroding the value of the total spent by visitors in Alaska by 11% in that time.

Alaska ranked 39th for high school graduation rate

A new report from America's Promise Alliance titled Building a Grad Nation shows Alaska has a lot of room to improve when it comes to high school graduation and dropout rates. The national high school graduation rate improved from 72.6% in 2002 to 75.5% in 2009. Alaska improved from 65.9% to 72.6%, one of the better improvement rates in that period. However, Alaska's rank overall is still poor:  we ranked 43rd in 2002 and 39th in 2009.

The report has a great discussion of the nuances of collecting and reporting graduation and dropout rates, and makes the point that a state can have a low dropout rate while still having a poor graduation rate.